Discussion paper
DP20365 The Pricing of Profit Shifting
Profit shifting by multinational enterprises (MNEs) increases after-tax earnings but can expose firms to regulatory and reputational risks. We examine how stock markets price profit shifting using global profit shifting estimates from approximately 30,000 MNE-year observations between 2010 and 2020. We find that a one standard deviation increase in profit shifting is associated with 6.4% higher monthly stock returns, indicating that stock markets require compensation for the underlying risks. The identified effects become significant only after the initiation of the Base Erosion and Profit Shifting program and gain further strength following the implementation of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
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